Our baseline sees a lower gilt risk premium, but upside risk is significant The UK's Autumn Budget, due today, is set to ...

Industrial metals extended gains in yesterday’s trading, with LME copper approaching the $11,000/t level amid a weakening US ...

The US Treasury’s semi-annual Report on Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners (the “FX Report”) is expected to ...

The US is spending more than 5 times as much as Europe on data centre construction. China is spending more than 3 times as much. And that means Europe risks losing out in the battle for AI supremacy.

This gives us confidence that annual GDP growth in 4Q25 is likely to exceed the 3.7% YoY reported in 3Q25. In 2025, we still ...

In the past three years, the German economy has recorded only two quarters of positive growth. On average, the economy has shrunk by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in every single quarter since the fourth ...

Intuitively, a deal with Russia would help euro rates higher, but falling gas futures are already pushing down the curve through lower inflation expectations. Tensions with Russia are likely to stay, ...

Polish construction output rose 4.1% year-on-year in October, rebounding from September’s near stagnation, when growth was just 0.2%. The strongest gains were seen in building construction and civil ...

Oil prices rose yesterday, in step with a global equity rally. However, peace talks remain a crucial area of uncertainty for ...

We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by 25bp to 2.25% on 26 November. However, upside risks to inflation ...

Combined, these measures are projected to yield budgetary savings of €2.1 billion in 2026, €4 billion in 2027, €4.7 billion ...

This does not really come as a surprise, but Germany’s businesses have downscaled their previous optimism. The Ifo index just ...