Prediction markets are showing some potential pathways for Democrats in swing states heading into the midterms.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and take control.

So let's take a look at the landscape, in order of most to least likely to flip. Tier 1 is most likely, Tier 2 is competitive ...

Prediction‑market data from Polymarket and Kalshi suggest Democrats are competitive in several key 2026 Senate races but still face a narrow and fragile path to a majority. Republicans hold a 53–47 ...